Why the Rise of China Will Not Lead to Global Hegemony. To find out more about E IR essay awards, click here. Domestic inadequacies and a loss of international prestige has left a growing number of scholars, analysts, and other experts worried about the imminent decline of the United States of America U. S. This coincides with the assumptions of Hegemonic Stability Theory HST, which presupposes the cyclical transition of world leadership. Said differently, the reigning world leader could soon be replaced by a new power. Over the last few decades military thinkers, journalists, policymakers, and scholars alike, have been watching with a wary eye, the rapid rise of China. Understandably, some are uneasy about the emergence of the Peoples Republic of China PRC as a new superpower. Given the apparent decline of the U. S., many experts even wonder if the PRC is positioning itself to succeed the U. S. as global hegemon. Its impressive economic growth and formidable military buildup could indicate that China is preparing for just such an occasion. But is Chinas hegemonic accession inevitable This is the question being asked by a small, but growing, chorus of futurists and their arguments are rather persuasive, too. What follows is an examination of Chinas potential or lack thereof, and an argument that the Middle Kingdoms internal problems are too numerous to be considered lightly. Since the Chinese Communist Party CCP is engaged in a desperate balancing act in an effort to maintain Chinas renaissance and thus, its hold on power, these problems could seriously derail the nations growth, and its prospects of obtaining global hegemony right along with it. This paper, therefore, will examine the China thesis lack of viability. While the U. S. may in fact be in decline, an ironic twist of fate has left Chinas rise dependent on the stability of the U. The Art Of War Sun Tzu Pdf Indonesia Currency Exchange' title='The Art Of War Sun Tzu Pdf Indonesia Currency Exchange' />
S. Moreover, the anticipated Chinese hegemony lacks theoretical support and finally, it simply is not feasible in practical terms. Consequently, this paper will first examine U. S. Chinese economic interdependence in the context of U. S. hegemonic decline. This will be followed by a discussion of HST and an analysis of Chinas rise through a theoretical lens. After it briefly explores the China thesis lack of practical viability in terms of demographic decline and environmental degradation, this paper will ultimately conclude that China cannot be the next hegemon. U. S. Hegemonic Decline and the Rise of China. At present, the U. S. stands at the top of the world in terms of economic and military prowess. Its gross domestic product at purchasing power parity GDP PPP ranks the highest in the world,2 while the GDP PPP of China3, the U. Literature in English Poetry. Singaporean literature in English started with the Straitsborn Chinese community in the colonial era it is unclear which was the first. The Art Of War Sun Tzu Pdf Indonesia Currency Exchange' title='The Art Of War Sun Tzu Pdf Indonesia Currency Exchange' />Measuring Chinas GDP in terms of PPP results in the most realistic figures regarding the size of Chinas economy, due to the fact that the exchange rate of the. S. s next closest competitor, is nearly 5 trillion smaller. Moreover, its military might is a fact of life around the world. After all, the U. Plan Game Client Software Download here. S. currently occupies two countries, Iraq and Afghanistan, it is heavily involved in the enforcement of the Libyan no fly zone, and it has a global military presence, evidenced by more than five hundred bases at home and abroad. The U. S. Air Force maintains unquestioned superiority over air and space. Meanwhile, the U. S. Navy is the dominant force in every ocean, where it has established safe shipping lanes, and served as a key instrument in U. S. force projection since 1. George Friedman, founder of the Austin, Texas based strategic and geopolitical forecasting firm, STRATFOR, and author of The Next One Hundred Years A Forecast for the 2. Century, asserts that maritime movement can be guaranteed or denied by the U. S. Navy at will. After all, he notes, the combined naval force of the rest of the world doesnt come close to equaling that of the U. S. Navy. 6Given these realities, it is no wonder that the U. S. remains the leader in a single superpower world. Left unchallenged since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1. U. S. has enjoyed a period of unipolarity in global affairs. However, the emergence of economic giants has resulted in the creation of new power centers all over the world. This threatens to alter the 2. U. S. economic primacy. After all, the U. S. may still possess the worlds lead economy, but it has run a trade deficit every year since 1. N.775217758_pamb.jpg' alt='The Art Of War Sun Tzu Pdf Indonesia Currency Exchange' title='The Art Of War Sun Tzu Pdf Indonesia Currency Exchange' />More alarming still, notes Niall Ferguson, is that the Congressional Budget Office CBO projects that the U. S. national debt could explode to 7. GDP by 2. 08. 0, compared with 4. GDP before the Great Recession 2. Additionally, its Chinathe U. S. s main competitorthat is financing Americas debt through the purchase of U. S. Treasury bonds. Of course, this is significant for other reasons as well first, China has the largest foreign exchange reserve in the world, totaling 2. China experienced an estimated economic growth rate of 1. Goldman Sachs projects that the size of the Chinese economy will eclipse that of the U. S. by 2. 04. 1 or, according to other estimates, as early as the late 2. Chinas Burgeoning Economic Power. Chinas economy is growing rapidly. Since a number of economic reforms were instituted in the 1. Chinas economy has had a thirty year run, officially growing at 9. With no equal in modern history,1. China an insatiable appetite for resources and other needs. Take as an example, the Thyssen Krupp steel mill of Dortmund, Germany. Moorhuhn Kart 1 here. In the early 2. Chinese company, Shagang, purchased the entire steel mill, paying its price in scrap. Shagang then had the entire mill disassembled, shipped 5,6. Yangtze River, in Jinfeng, China in less than a year. In essence, Chinas ravenous consumption is being felt across the globe. Its need for natural resources has been felt from Germany to Indonesia and Latin America and from the Middle East to Australia. The Chinese need natural gas from Russia, iron ore from Brazil and Australia, oil from the Middle East, and soybeans from the U. S. In fact, Chinas need for timber has resulted in a massive illegal logging operation in Indonesia, where an area the size of Switzerland is cut down and sold on the black market each year. The Peoples Republic is also attractive to foreign investors. In fact, China currently only ranks second to the U. S. in terms of foreign investment. It accounts for 4. Geoffrey Murray predicts that China will become a bottomless pit in this regard. Moreover, Chinas export growth rate is three times stronger than the world average, and the country is holding down imports through currency manipulation and tariffs, while still encouraging investment by playing foreign companies against one another. Increasingly, China is also awarding contracts only if there is a trade off of advanced technology being supplied. Chinas Expanding Military Might. Before an incumbent hegemon falls from its leadership position, it typically faces a period known as hegemonic decline. After about seventy to one hundred years, it seems that decline is almost natural. Historically, examples of hegemonic decline come in two prime sectors the leading states military, and its economy. Excluding U. S. Special Forces covertly operating abroad, training missions, and technical support missions, the U.